human factors in political ads

I heard a joking comment today but it got me thinking that the opposite of his joke was actually the truth.  A radio news host and a guest were talking about Republican consultant Fred Davis' proposal to launch a Super Pac that would bring back up Reverend Jeremiah Wright from the 2008 campaign.  As you may recall, he is an extremist pastor on a few race related topics and had been associated with Obama from years before.   At that time, Obama was forced to renounce Rev Wright’s comments, reject the relationship, and make sure everyone knew that he never agreed with his controversial opinions.  Once the New York Times found out about the Super Pac plan, Romney was forced to do the with  Davis.  The radio host's joke was basically that political ads usually say “I am candidate X and I approve this message.”  Now, the ads are going to say “I am candidate X and I repudiate this message.”  Hah hah.   Thank you Citizens United.

But then I started thinking about the way the brain processes information and how we can’t unring the bell.  People on the left (right) who are solidly behind Obama (Romney) would not be affected by the whole thing, no matter how it is handled.  But what happens to the people who are undecided or unaware of the past?  What would likely happen is a two step process.

First, they would hear the controversial message, develop negative opinions about the targeted candidate (in this case Obama), but also negative opinions about the candidate who is seemingly behind it (Romney).  During the time when they think it is an official campaign message, they wouldn’t necessarily doubt it too strongly.

Then when they hear the repudiation and realize that the message was sponsored by a hyperpartisan group, overwhelmingly exaggerated, and largely deceptive, they would try to erase the memory.  But they can’t help but be influenced by it because it has been sitting there in their heads for a few days, maybe even repeated several times before they see the repudiation.  You can’t erase a memory just because you want to.  Even if you know it is false.

Third, they get the message that the candidate who repudiated the ad was not involved and is really an honorable guy.  Again, you can’t erase a memory, but this is just a sense of like/dislike.  The original negative impression is not completely erased, but it also isn’t strongly ingrained.  

Net-net, the result is still good for the attacking Pac

When campaigns realize how great a trick this is, I suspect they will "encourage" SuperPacs to “independently” run ads like this and then the candidate can proudly walk up to the nearest podium (a few days later) and repudiate it.  Again, thanks Citizen’s United.