Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Cycles of Power


Poverty demographics show us the virtuous cycle of power.

At the turn of the 20th Century, the poorest demographic was the elderly. The elderly did not vote in large numbers at that time.  It is a common truth that people who are so busy dealing with their poverty that they don’t have time for political action.  They don’t have time to become a voting bloc, and so they don’t demand public benefits.  Without the demand, they don’t get any.  They stay in poverty. Politicians had no need to pander to them. 

Social Security was an exception because it was a Keynesian stimulus program to fight the Depression as much as it was to help the elderly themselves.  But one side effect is that the elderly now had some time and attention to focus on politics.  They started voting in greater numbers.  They started demanding public benefits.  Politicians realized they needed to provide the elderly with benefits or they would not get elected/re-elected. 

The automatic cost of living adjustment (with no downgrade for deflation allowed) was born.  Because of the way the COLA was designed, it has become a greater and greater piece of the GDP every year.  It became more and more valuable and therefore more and more worth protecting.  The elderly became a stronger voting bloc and more focused on protecting Social Security benefits from any deficit reduction or fairness initiatives.  Single-issue voting blocs of this size get very powerful in DC. 

This cycle can be exploited by any group if they know about it.  First, you have to vote often and publicly.  You need to focus on a single issue, or at least a limited and focused set of issues.  You need to make these issues public and your passion clear.  Hire a professional organization or lobbyist to facilitate your demands in DC (or state houses). Then just sit back and watch the benefits roll in. 

But there is also the law of unintended consequences.  The poorest demographic is now children.  They don’t vote, so they are not eligible for this virtuous cycle of power.  The one demographic that is kept out of the circles of power is perhaps the group that needs it the most. 

No comments: