Tuesday, November 15, 2011

The new European Monroe Doctrine?


The first hour of Diane Rhieme was a discussion of the European economic crisis.  But in my usual stream of consciousness stlye was able to make a leap that I think it pretty insightful and possible relevant. 

Most of 19th century US history was guided by the Monroe Doctrine and western expansion.   In the US’s unique version of empire building, we took territory from Mexico, Spain, and Canada to expand all the way to the Pacific Coast – from sea to shining sea.  Of course, there were underlying ulterior motives, like rich mineral resources, lumber, territorial expansion, and imperialism.  But what was interesting is that the public face of this expansion was that the current owners of these territories were mismanaging them.   Mexico had 25 governments in 25 years, mostly due to military coup.  So they were ignoring their northern territories in Texas and Arizona because they had no money left for development.  Canada was mismanaging the Oregon Territories because they just didn’t have enough people.  They could barely fill their own heartland let alone expand to new territories.  The Native American tribes didn’t seem to have any desire to develop the land at all.  So by taking these territories away from them, we were doing them a favor.  We could more effectively develop and efficiently manage growth.  We were doing it for their own good.

So now jump to modern day Europe.  Northern Europe contains the only countries that have managed their economies well.  And Germany is the only one with the size and infrastructure to help out Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland out of the messes they have created.  They could teach these companies the effective way to manage a modern economy.  Instead of breaking up the Euro, they could strengthen it by taking a more leading role, just like the US did in the western territories in the 19th Century.  Times are different now, so I wouldn’t expect Germany to annex Greece and Italy.  The Euro wouldn’t get renamed the new DeutsheMark and the ECB wouldn’t get renamed the Bundesbank.  But slowly and surely these companies would become more and more Germanized for their own benefit.  German manufacturers would take over operations of Italian manufacturers to show them how to do it right.  German banks would take over Greek banks to show them how to do it right.  Perhaps with shareholder agreements that give them controlling interest with preferred shares.  Pretty soon, Germany is running Europe from sea  (Atlantic) to shining sea (Baltic and Caspian).  And given how cash strapped the US is right now, we might look at this with a sigh of relief that the crisis is over.

Possible?    Likely?  Perhaps a good thing – compared to the alternatives?

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