statistics and Iraq

I haven't watched the hearings of General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker very closely, in general because they have so much more information than the rest of us that they can present any conclusions they want and there is no way to really know how "real" a picture they are presenting. Most people know the saying "there are liars, damned liars, and statisticians" and there is a reason for that. The reduction in violence being presented could be the usual seasonal lull in the summer. It could also be temporary because of the surge but ready to come back when the US troop levels return to 130,000. Or it could be that the general and ambassador are cherry picking the stats that look good while ignoring others that don't (an alpha error). Or it could be that fundamental improvements are really occurring (you can stop laughing now).


I fool myself with statistics when my favorite sports teams are failing and I need a reason to keep cheering for them. But to do this with thousands of lives and billions of dollars at stake is really foolish. But as a libertarian, maybe I should be happy that both houses of Congress and all the 24 hour news shows are busy with this and not messing around with the economy. But then again, the Fed meets next week . . .