Primary scheduling

There has been a lot of discussion recently about states moving up their primaries to increase their influence on the eventual presidential candidates. Iowa and NH have been at the front for years because there was conventional wisdom that the person who attracts the dems (or repubs) in those states (purple) have a better chance in a country-wide general election than someone who wins a primary in a strongly red or blue state. And since they are relatively small, it is easy to focus on them than say Pennsylvania.

But if you read the fantastic summary Cass Sunstein gives of the research on information and reputation cascades in his 2006 book Infotopia (don't worry, it is a much easier read than the title suggests), you will see how wrong this can be. If the first primary/caucus causes a small error in the second one and they combine to cause slightly larger error in the third one, etc., then you could have a completely non-viable candidate by the time you get to Super Tuesday. The money, support, and good consultants all switch to the winners of these early primaries.

Please read the book. Not only will you get some great insights on this potential problem, but lots of others too. I used up an entire highlighter and a pen writing the margins.